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2009-02-22 15:23:02|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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In this argument, the vice president concludes that the new store built in Plainville will be profitable. To support his conclusion, the president points out that people lived in Plainville are favor of sports goods, and prone to go to health club recently. In addition, he infers that more and more people in Plainville would like to choose a weight training class or an aerobics class to keep healthier and thinner. Furthermore, the president cites a 'fitness for life' program as a typical example in support of this argument. However, these alone do not constitute a logical argument in favor of its conclusion and fail to provide convincing support make this argument sound and invulnerable.

The threshold problem with this argument is that the president assumes too hastily that the phenomenon of loving sports commodities and the body-building in Plainville will necessarily result in the behavior of purchasing health food. Perhaps most of people who pay attention to health problem would rather choose to do more exercises than to have some kind of health food. What's more, the president fails to establish the causal relationship between the fact that the 'fitness for life' program exists and the claim that the new generation will become the customers of Nature's Way. Perhaps due to this kind of program, the new generation has developed a habit of exercising to keep health, and will not purchase any health food produced by industrial company. They may prefer nature food, which, on the contrary, will not bring any profit to the new food company.

Moreover, admittedly they also would like to purchase some health food; they will not necessarily buy the health food produced by Nature's Way. The president fails to provide information about other companies producing alike kind of health food, and ignores the competition between food companies. The president did not mention the problem of brand loyalty, which is vital for a new-coming food company. Perhaps there have been some other food companies running well in Plainville's market, or the market of health food has been saturated, no other food companies would be accepted.

Even if the Nature' Way company could survive in Plainville's food market, or the market were not glutted, the president can not claim that the new store in Plainville can absolutely be profitable. Whether a company can be profitable or not is a function of revenue and expenses, relating to the expense of building the new store and the cost of making health food. Since the president did not provide any information about the expense and cost, I simply can not take the vice president's argument seriously.

In sum, it comes to the conclusion just depending on some paradox experiences and several superficial phenomenons, and it makes the argument unpersuasive as it stands. Therefore, before investing this business, the company must do sufficient market researches, find the advantages in themselves and analyze local investment surrounding, competition condition and consumption habit of local people.

 

NORTH AMERICAN MODEL ESSAY
In this memo the vice president of Nature's Way CNW), a chain of stores selling health food
and health-related products, recommends opening a store in Plamesville. To support this
recommendation the vice president cites the following facts about Plainesville: (1) sales of
exercise shoes and clothing are at all-time highs; (2) the local health club is more popular than
ever; and (3) the city's schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness program. Close
scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the
recommendation.First, strong sales of exercise apparel do not necessarily indicate that Plainesville residents
would be interested in NW's products, or that these residents are interested in exercising.
Perhaps exercise apparel happens to be fashionable at the moment, or inexpensive compared
to other types of clothing. For that matter, perhaps the stronger-than-usual sales are due to
increasing sales to tourists. In short, without mlmg out other possible reasons for the strong
sales the vice president cannot convince me on the basis of them that Plainesville residents
are exercising regularly, let alone that they would be interested in buying the sorts of food and
other products that NW sells.
Secondly, even if exercise is more popular among Plainesville residents than ever before,
the vice president assumes further that people who exercise regularly are also interested in
buying health food and health-related products. Yet the memo contains no evidence to support
this assumption. Lacking such evidence it is equally possible that aside from exercising
Plainesville residents have little interest in leading a healthy lifestyle. In fact, perhaps as a
result of regular exercise they believe they are sufficiently fit and healthy and do not need ahealthy diet.
Thirdly, the popularity of the local health club is little indication that NW will earn a profit from
a store in Plainesville. Perhaps club members live in an area of PlamesviUe nowhere near
feasible sites for a NW store. Or perhaps the dub's primary appeal is as a singles meeting
place, and that members actually have little interest in a healthy lifestyle. Besides, even if the
club's members would patronize a NW store these members might be insufficient in number to
ensure a profit for the store, especially considering that this health club is the only one in
Plainesville.
Fourth, the fact that a certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesville's schoolchildren
accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the recommendation. Many years must pass before
these children will be old enough to make buying decisions when it comes to food and
health-related products. Their habits and interests might change radically over time. Besides,
mandatory participation is no indication of genuine interest in health or fitness. Moreover, when
these children grow older it is entirely possible that they will favor an unhealthy lifestyle--as a
reaction to the healthful habits imposed upon them nOW.
Finally, even assuming that PlamesviUe residents are strongly interested in eating health
foods and health-related products, the recommendation rests on two additional assumptions:
(1) that this interest will continue in the foreseeable future, and (2) that PlainesviUe residents
will prefer NW over other merchants that sell similar products. Until the vice president
substantiates both assumptions I remain unconvinced that a NW store in PlainesviUe would
be profitable.
In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it
unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation the vice president must provide dear
evidence--perhaps by way of a local survey or study--that PlainesviUe residents who buy and
wear exercise apparel, and especially the health club's members, do in fact exercise regularly,
and that these exercisers are likely to buy health foods and health related products at a NW
store. To better assess the recommendation, I would need to know why Plainesville's health
club is nonular, and whv Plainesville does not contain more health clubs. I would also need to
know what competition NW might face in PlainesviUe.

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